I think all columnists, bloggers, opinion types should make bets all the time. That way, we can tally how well they do at predicting stuff. So I give Jonah Goldberg all the credit in the world, for offering to bet on the outcome of Iraq. Problem is - he was dead wrong.
Two years ago, he offered to bet Juan Cole that... well, I'll let him explain it:
Anyway, I do think my judgment is superior to his when it comes to the big picture. So, I have an idea: Since he doesn't want to debate anything except his own brilliance, let's make a bet. I predict that Iraq won't have a civil war, that it will have a viable constitution, and that a majority of Iraqis and Americans will, in two years time, agree that the war was worth it. I'll bet $1,000 (which I can hardly spare right now). This way neither of us can hide behind clever word play or CV reading. If there's another reasonable wager Cole wants to offer which would measure our judgment, I'm all ears. Money where your mouth is, doc.
He clearly lost. Here's the response. Kind of sore-loserish, if you ask me.
P.S. - I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is on stuff too.
Pic by powerbooktrance
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